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Prevention program “Puhas Tulevik” effectiveness study


Since 2019, the number of offenses committed by minors in Estonia has been on a declining trend, but the number of drug-related crimes has increased. In order to more effectively change the behavior of minors, a multifaceted approach has been implemented, preferring means of influence over punishments and implementing social programs. Among these is the prevention program “Puhas Tulevik” aimed at reducing drug use and promoting the social and psychological well-being of young people. However, considering the complexity of prevention work and the inadequacy or harmfulness of several measures, it is important to analyze the causes of delinquency, develop and implement evidence-based measures to prevent drug use among youth, and assess the impact and evidence-based nature of the measures already in place.


The aim of the study is to analyze the evidence-based nature and the current implementation of the prevention program “Puhas Tulevik”, including based on a comparative mapping of local municipalities.


For evaluating the effectiveness of the prevention program “Puhas Tulevik,” various methods are employed. Document analysis is used to gather preliminary information and define the theoretical framework.  A survey will be conducted among child protection specialists and local police officers in municipalities implementing the prevention program to map activities and obtain their assessment among program implementers. An analysis of program completers and dropouts will also be conducted. Semi-structured in-depth interviews will be conducted with representatives from four target groups: participants in the prevention program, their parents, local police officers, and municipality officials. The aim is to obtain detailed input to assess the effectiveness of the program  and identify various factors that influence its effectiveness. In the nationwide mapping of the program, a logic intervention analysis is conducted in different municipalities. Additionally, a validation seminar is conducted to present the research findings, gather initial feedback, and validate the conclusions and recommendations of the study.


During the study, the aim is to assess whether the activities implemented within the program support the achievement of objectives in the best possible way, and to identify the main challenges in implementing the program. As a result of the study, practical recommendations for further development of the program will be presented, along with suggestions for evaluating the effectiveness of the program in the future.  

Project ordering institution: Police and Border Guard Board
Project implementer: LevelLab
Duration: 11/2023 ‍–